Premier Division · Friday, 21 August 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 42% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Premier Division average is 47%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Drogheda United at 34%, the draw at 29% and St Patrick's Athl. at 37%, from expected goals of 1.08 and 1.15.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 42% | -7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 58% | +7% |
| Both teams to score | 1.95 | 48% | 52% | +4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Drogheda United 5.00, draw 3.60, St Patrick's Athl. 1.62.
The league sets the starting point. Premier Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Drogheda United have 14 in 27 this season (5 of 13 at home), St Patrick's Athl. 10 in 27 (4 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 44%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 39%, from expected goals of 1.08 for Drogheda United and 1.15 for St Patrick's Athl.. Folding in 30% of that view gives 42%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drogheda United | 27 | 52% | 33% | 59% |
| St Patrick's Athl. | 27 | 37% | 30% | 44% |
More: Drogheda United season stats · St Patrick's Athl. season stats · Premier Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.