First League · Friday, 21 August 2026 · 19:15. Our rating makes this 49% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The First League average is 45%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 55% | No |
The result model puts Cherno More Varna at 34%, the draw at 24% and Dunav Ruse at 42%, from expected goals of 1.39 and 1.58.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 50% | 49% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 50% | 51% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 2.00 | 46% | 45% | -2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Cherno More Varna 1.50, draw 4.00, Dunav Ruse 5.75.
The league sets the starting point. First League has produced over 2.5 goals in 45% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Cherno More Varna have 3 in 5 this season (2 of 2 at home), Dunav Ruse 3 in 5 (3 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 43% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 1.39 for Cherno More Varna and 1.58 for Dunav Ruse. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherno More Varna | 5 | 60% | 40% | 60% |
| Dunav Ruse | 5 | 60% | 0% | 60% |
More: Cherno More Varna season stats · Dunav Ruse season stats · First League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.