MLS · Thursday, 20 August 2026 · 01:00. Our rating makes this 59% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The MLS average is 60%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 36% | Yes |
The result model puts Sporting Kansas City at 30%, the draw at 24% and St. Louis City at 46%, from expected goals of 1.27 and 1.64.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 63% | 59% | -3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.50 | 38% | 41% | +3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 | 65% | 64% | 0% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Sporting Kansas City 3.25, draw 3.80, St. Louis City 2.00.
The league sets the starting point. MLS has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sporting Kansas City have 15 in 19 this season (6 of 9 at home), St. Louis City 8 in 19 (3 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Head to head. These sides have met 10 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 80%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 61%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 1.27 for Sporting Kansas City and 1.64 for St. Louis City. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Kansas City | 19 | 79% | 47% | 58% |
| St. Louis City | 19 | 42% | 32% | 63% |
More: Sporting Kansas City season stats · St. Louis City season stats · MLS table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.