MLS · Thursday, 20 August 2026 · 00:30. Our rating makes this 61% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The MLS average is 60%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 59% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts FC Cincinnati at 49%, the draw at 22% and New York City FC at 29%, from expected goals of 1.95 and 1.47.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 65% | 61% | -5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.70 | 35% | 39% | +5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 | 66% | 60% | -6% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: FC Cincinnati 2.05, draw 3.80, New York City FC 3.00.
The league sets the starting point. MLS has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Cincinnati have 13 in 19 this season (6 of 9 at home), New York City FC 11 in 19 (3 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 63% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Head to head. These sides have met 9 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 44%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 66%, from expected goals of 1.95 for FC Cincinnati and 1.47 for New York City FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati | 19 | 68% | 63% | 79% |
| New York City FC | 19 | 58% | 32% | 68% |
More: FC Cincinnati season stats · New York City FC season stats · MLS table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.