Serie B · Thursday, 20 August 2026 · 00:30. Our rating makes this 40% to go over 2.5 goals, though our own outlier boards contradict the call, so we sit it out. The Serie B average is 40%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Cuiaba at 44%, the draw at 29% and Operario-PR at 28%, from expected goals of 1.26 and 0.94.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.70 | 35% | 40% | +5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 65% | 60% | -5% |
| Both teams to score | 2.25 | 41% | 51% | +9% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Cuiaba 2.10, draw 3.00, Operario-PR 3.80.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 40% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Cuiaba have 4 in 22 this season (1 of 11 at home), Operario-PR 15 in 22 (8 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 27% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 41%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 41%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 38%, from expected goals of 1.26 for Cuiaba and 0.94 for Operario-PR. Folding in 30% of that view gives 40%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuiaba | 22 | 18% | 14% | 36% |
| Operario-PR | 22 | 68% | 23% | 59% |
More: Cuiaba season stats · Operario-PR season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.