MLS · Thursday, 20 August 2026 · 00:30. Our rating makes this 61% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The MLS average is 60%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | Yes |
The result model puts Columbus Crew at 52%, the draw at 23% and CF Montreal at 25%, from expected goals of 1.78 and 1.15.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 61% | 61% | 0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.40 | 39% | 39% | +0% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 58% | 62% | +5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Columbus Crew 1.55, draw 4.20, CF Montreal 5.25.
The league sets the starting point. MLS has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Columbus Crew have 13 in 19 this season (4 of 9 at home), CF Montreal 12 in 19 (8 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 65%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 1.78 for Columbus Crew and 1.15 for CF Montreal. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus Crew | 19 | 68% | 37% | 74% |
| CF Montreal | 19 | 63% | 37% | 47% |
More: Columbus Crew season stats · CF Montreal season stats · MLS table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.