Serie B · Thursday, 20 August 2026 · 01:30. Our rating makes this 35% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie B average is 40%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 65% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% | 85% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 43% | 57% | No |
The result model puts Botafogo SP at 40%, the draw at 29% and Criciuma at 30%, from expected goals of 1.17 and 0.97.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.60 | 36% | 35% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.48 | 64% | 65% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 2.20 | 42% | 43% | +1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Botafogo SP 2.60, draw 2.90, Criciuma 2.80.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 40% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Botafogo SP have 10 in 30 this season (7 of 14 at home), Criciuma 4 in 22 (3 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 39% and 31%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 36%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 35%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 36%, from expected goals of 1.17 for Botafogo SP and 0.97 for Criciuma. Folding in 30% of that view gives 35%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo SP | 30 | 33% | 17% | 40% |
| Criciuma | 22 | 18% | 9% | 41% |
More: Botafogo SP season stats · Criciuma season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.