Serie B · Wednesday, 19 August 2026 · 01:30. Our rating makes this 36% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie B average is 40%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 64% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | 84% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Nautico Recife at 45%, the draw at 29% and Ceara at 26%, from expected goals of 1.25 and 0.86.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 45% | 36% | -9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 55% | 64% | +9% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | 50% | 48% | -2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Nautico Recife 2.10, draw 3.10, Ceara 3.50.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 40% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Nautico Recife have 8 in 22 this season (3 of 10 at home), Ceara 7 in 22 (2 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 37% and 34%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 37%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 35%, from expected goals of 1.25 for Nautico Recife and 0.86 for Ceara. Folding in 30% of that view gives 36%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nautico Recife | 22 | 36% | 18% | 41% |
| Ceara | 22 | 32% | 14% | 50% |
More: Nautico Recife season stats · Ceara season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.