Serie B · Wednesday, 19 August 2026 · 01:35. Our rating makes this 34% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie B average is 40%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 66% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | 84% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 44% | 56% | No |
The result model puts Goias at 42%, the draw at 30% and Juventude at 28%, from expected goals of 1.14 and 0.87.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.60 | 36% | 34% | -2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.48 | 64% | 66% | +2% |
| Both teams to score | 2.20 | 42% | 44% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Goias 2.30, draw 2.90, Juventude 3.30.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 40% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Goias have 7 in 22 this season (3 of 10 at home), Juventude 5 in 22 (3 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 36% and 33%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 35%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 33%, from expected goals of 1.14 for Goias and 0.87 for Juventude. Folding in 30% of that view gives 34%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Goias season stats · Juventude season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.