Serie A · Tuesday, 18 August 2026 · 00:00. Our rating makes this 47% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie A average is 47%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Internacional at 53%, the draw at 24% and Remo at 23%, from expected goals of 1.66 and 1.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 | 53% | 47% | -5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 47% | 53% | +5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | 52% | 51% | -1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Internacional 1.55, draw 4.00, Remo 6.25.
The league sets the starting point. Serie A has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Internacional have 8 in 22 this season (4 of 11 at home), Remo 11 in 22 (7 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 42% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.66 for Internacional and 1 for Remo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internacional | 22 | 36% | 23% | 55% |
| Remo | 22 | 50% | 27% | 55% |
More: Internacional season stats · Remo season stats · Serie A table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.