Liga Profesional · Tuesday, 18 August 2026 · 01:30. Our rating makes this 33% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Liga Profesional average is 33%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 67% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% | 87% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 40% | 60% | No |
The result model puts Gimnasia M. at 35%, the draw at 31% and Talleres Cordoba at 34%, from expected goals of 0.98 and 0.95.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.88 | 33% | 33% | +0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 67% | 67% | 0% |
| Both teams to score | 2.25 | 41% | 40% | -1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Gimnasia M. 3.00, draw 2.70, Talleres Cordoba 2.88.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Profesional has produced over 2.5 goals in 33% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Gimnasia M. have 6 in 20 this season (3 of 10 at home), Talleres Cordoba 9 in 21 (4 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 32% and 37%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 34%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 31%, from expected goals of 0.98 for Gimnasia M. and 0.95 for Talleres Cordoba. Folding in 30% of that view gives 33%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia M. | 20 | 30% | 15% | 40% |
| Talleres Cordoba | 21 | 43% | 10% | 43% |
More: Gimnasia M. season stats · Talleres Cordoba season stats · Liga Profesional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.