Urvalsdeild · Monday, 17 August 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 68% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Urvalsdeild average is 62%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 32% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 66% | 34% | Yes |
The result model puts Valur Reykjavik at 43%, the draw at 21% and KA Akureyri at 36%, from expected goals of 2.04 and 1.87.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.33 | 71% | 68% | -3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.25 | 29% | 32% | +3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.36 | 69% | 66% | -3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Valur Reykjavik 1.95, draw 3.80, KA Akureyri 2.88.
The league sets the starting point. Urvalsdeild has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Valur Reykjavik have 13 in 18 this season (8 of 9 at home), KA Akureyri 11 in 18 (7 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 69% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 66%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 75%, from expected goals of 2.04 for Valur Reykjavik and 1.87 for KA Akureyri. Folding in 30% of that view gives 68%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valur Reykjavik | 18 | 72% | 56% | 72% |
| KA Akureyri | 18 | 61% | 44% | 61% |
More: Valur Reykjavik season stats · KA Akureyri season stats · Urvalsdeild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.