Premyer Liqa · Monday, 17 August 2026 · 16:30. Our rating makes this 44% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Premyer Liqa average is 48%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 41% | 59% | No |
The result model puts Qarabag at 40%, the draw at 27% and Şamaxı FK at 33%, from expected goals of 1.3 and 1.17.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 61% | 44% | -17% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.38 | 39% | 56% | +17% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | 56% | 41% | -15% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Qarabag 1.48, draw 4.33, Şamaxı FK 4.75.
The league sets the starting point. Premyer Liqa has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Qarabag have 0 in 0 this season, Şamaxı FK 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 48% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 43%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 45%, from expected goals of 1.3 for Qarabag and 1.17 for Şamaxı FK. Folding in 30% of that view gives 46%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Qarabag season stats · Şamaxı FK season stats · Premyer Liqa table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.