Urvalsdeild · Monday, 17 August 2026 · 20:15. Our rating makes this 71% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Urvalsdeild average is 62%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 29% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 68% | 32% | Yes |
The result model puts Fram Reykjavik at 54%, the draw at 18% and Stjarnan at 28%, from expected goals of 2.82 and 2.08.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.17 | 79% | 71% | -8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 4.50 | 21% | 29% | +8% |
| Both teams to score | 1.20 | 78% | 68% | -10% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Fram Reykjavik 1.85, draw 4.10, Stjarnan 2.90.
The league sets the starting point. Urvalsdeild has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fram Reykjavik have 13 in 18 this season (8 of 9 at home), Stjarnan 15 in 18 (8 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 69% and 73%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 69%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 17%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 87%, from expected goals of 2.82 for Fram Reykjavik and 2.08 for Stjarnan. Folding in 30% of that view gives 71%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fram Reykjavik | 18 | 72% | 67% | 72% |
| Stjarnan | 18 | 83% | 72% | 83% |
More: Fram Reykjavik season stats · Stjarnan season stats · Urvalsdeild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.