Liga 2 · Monday, 17 August 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 44% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Liga 2 average is 44%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 44% | 56% | No |
The result model puts Felgueiras 1932 at 39%, the draw at 28% and AVS at 32%, from expected goals of 1.22 and 1.08.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.08 | 45% | 44% | -2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 55% | 56% | +2% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | 50% | 44% | -6% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Felgueiras 1932 2.25, draw 3.00, AVS 2.90.
The league sets the starting point. Liga 2 has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Felgueiras 1932 have 0 in 1 this season, AVS 0 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 43% and 43%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 33% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 40%, from expected goals of 1.22 for Felgueiras 1932 and 1.08 for AVS. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felgueiras 1932 | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| AVS | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
More: Felgueiras 1932 season stats · AVS season stats · Liga 2 table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.