Eerste Divisie · Monday, 17 August 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 68% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Eerste Divisie average is 63%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 32% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 36% | Yes |
The result model puts De Graafschap at 44%, the draw at 23% and Jong AZ at 32%, from expected goals of 1.74 and 1.46.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.33 | 72% | 68% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.40 | 28% | 32% | +4% |
| Both teams to score | 1.33 | 71% | 64% | -7% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: De Graafschap 1.75, draw 4.33, Jong AZ 3.75.
The league sets the starting point. Eerste Divisie has produced over 2.5 goals in 63% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. De Graafschap have 0 in 1 this season, Jong AZ 0 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 61%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 67% and 68%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 67%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 70%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 1.74 for De Graafschap and 1.46 for Jong AZ. Folding in 30% of that view gives 68%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De Graafschap | 1 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Jong AZ | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
More: De Graafschap season stats · Jong AZ season stats · Eerste Divisie table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.