Primera Nacional · Monday, 17 August 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 24% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera Nacional average is 29%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 24% | 76% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 8% | 92% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 37% | 63% | No |
The result model puts All Boys at 45%, the draw at 37% and Nueva Chicago at 18%, from expected goals of 0.91 and 0.46.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 3.50 | 27% | 24% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.30 | 73% | 76% | +4% |
| Both teams to score | 2.62 | 35% | 37% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: All Boys 2.20, draw 2.90, Nueva Chicago 3.80.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 29% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. All Boys have 5 in 24 this season (1 of 12 at home), Nueva Chicago 7 in 23 (3 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 23% and 29%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 27%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 16%, from expected goals of 0.91 for All Boys and 0.46 for Nueva Chicago. Folding in 30% of that view gives 24%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Boys | 24 | 21% | 8% | 38% |
| Nueva Chicago | 23 | 30% | 13% | 35% |
More: All Boys season stats · Nueva Chicago season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.