Primera Nacional · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 19:00. Final score 3–1 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 74% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 26% | 74% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 9% | 91% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 39% | 61% | No |
The result model puts Tristan Suarez at 39%, the draw at 40% and Almirante Brown at 21%, from expected goals of 0.79 and 0.49.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 3.60 | 26% | 26% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.28 | 74% | 74% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 2.75 | 34% | 39% | +5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Tristan Suarez 2.25, draw 2.75, Almirante Brown 4.00.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 29% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Tristan Suarez have 6 in 23 this season (4 of 11 at home), Almirante Brown 4 in 24 (2 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 29% and 23%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 27%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 31%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 14%, from expected goals of 0.79 for Tristan Suarez and 0.49 for Almirante Brown. Folding in 30% of that view gives 26%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Suarez | 23 | 26% | 13% | 30% |
| Almirante Brown | 24 | 17% | 4% | 25% |
More: Tristan Suarez season stats · Almirante Brown season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.