USL Championship · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 00:30. Final score 2–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 58% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Tampa Bay Rowdies at 45%, the draw at 22% and Rhode Island at 32%, from expected goals of 1.88 and 1.56.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 | 53% | 58% | +5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 47% | 42% | -5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | 51% | 54% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Tampa Bay Rowdies 1.70, draw 3.60, Rhode Island 4.10.
The league sets the starting point. USL Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Tampa Bay Rowdies have 9 in 19 this season (7 of 9 at home), Rhode Island 8 in 17 (5 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 80%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 67%, from expected goals of 1.88 for Tampa Bay Rowdies and 1.56 for Rhode Island. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rowdies | 19 | 47% | 32% | 47% |
| Rhode Island | 17 | 47% | 35% | 59% |
More: Tampa Bay Rowdies season stats · Rhode Island season stats · USL Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.