Canadian Premier League · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 17:00. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 59% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Supra Du Quebec at 41%, the draw at 24% and Atlético Ottawa at 35%, from expected goals of 1.59 and 1.43.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 59% | 59% | 0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.30 | 41% | 41% | +0% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | 59% | 61% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Supra Du Quebec 2.15, draw 3.50, Atlético Ottawa 2.88.
The league sets the starting point. Canadian Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 59% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Supra Du Quebec have 9 in 15 this season (4 of 8 at home), Atlético Ottawa 11 in 16 (6 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 1.59 for Supra Du Quebec and 1.43 for Atlético Ottawa. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supra Du Quebec | 15 | 60% | 33% | 80% |
| Atlético Ottawa | 16 | 69% | 44% | 75% |
More: Supra Du Quebec season stats · Atlético Ottawa season stats · Canadian Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.