USL Championship · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 00:00. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 57% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Sporting JAX at 41%, the draw at 22% and Indy Eleven at 37%, from expected goals of 1.78 and 1.68.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 60% | 57% | -3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.35 | 40% | 43% | +3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | 59% | 54% | -5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Sporting JAX 3.25, draw 3.60, Indy Eleven 1.85.
The league sets the starting point. USL Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sporting JAX have 14 in 19 this season (8 of 9 at home), Indy Eleven 7 in 17 (3 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 63% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 67%, from expected goals of 1.78 for Sporting JAX and 1.68 for Indy Eleven. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting JAX | 19 | 74% | 53% | 63% |
| Indy Eleven | 17 | 41% | 29% | 53% |
More: Sporting JAX season stats · Indy Eleven season stats · USL Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.