Eliteserien · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 16:00. Final score 1–2 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 55% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Sarpsborg 08 FF at 49%, the draw at 26% and Sandefjord at 25%, from expected goals of 1.49 and 0.99.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 63% | 55% | -8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.50 | 38% | 45% | +8% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | 61% | 58% | -3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.75, draw 4.00, Sandefjord 4.20.
The league sets the starting point. Eliteserien has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sarpsborg 08 FF have 8 in 16 this season (2 of 7 at home), Sandefjord 7 in 16 (5 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 80%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 45%, from expected goals of 1.49 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0.99 for Sandefjord. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarpsborg 08 FF | 16 | 50% | 19% | 56% |
| Sandefjord | 16 | 44% | 19% | 44% |
More: Sarpsborg 08 FF season stats · Sandefjord season stats · Eliteserien table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.