Liga Profesional · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 19:00. Final score 2–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 66% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 66% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% | 85% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 42% | 58% | No |
The result model puts Sarmiento Junin at 34%, the draw at 32% and Huracan at 34%, from expected goals of 0.92 and 0.92.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 3.10 | 30% | 34% | +4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 70% | 66% | -4% |
| Both teams to score | 2.38 | 39% | 42% | +3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Sarmiento Junin 3.30, draw 2.80, Huracan 2.55.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Profesional has produced over 2.5 goals in 33% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sarmiento Junin have 11 in 20 this season (5 of 10 at home), Huracan 7 in 22 (2 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 43% and 30%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 36%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 37%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 28%, from expected goals of 0.92 for Sarmiento Junin and 0.92 for Huracan. Folding in 30% of that view gives 34%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarmiento Junin | 20 | 55% | 20% | 50% |
| Huracan | 22 | 32% | 9% | 45% |
More: Sarmiento Junin season stats · Huracan season stats · Liga Profesional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.