Premijer Liga · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 20:00. Final score 1–5 (half-time 1–2). Before kick-off we rated it 65% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 6, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 65% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% | 85% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 33% | 67% | No |
The result model puts Radnik Bijeljina at 47%, the draw at 28% and Zrinjski at 24%, from expected goals of 1.31 and 0.85.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.62 | 35% | 35% | 0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 65% | 65% | +0% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Radnik Bijeljina 4.20, draw 3.10, Zrinjski 1.80.
The league sets the starting point. Premijer Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 38% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Radnik Bijeljina have 0 in 1 this season, Zrinjski 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 37% and 40%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 34% and 36%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 36%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 29%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 35%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 37%, from expected goals of 1.31 for Radnik Bijeljina and 0.85 for Zrinjski. Folding in 30% of that view gives 35%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Radnik Bijeljina | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Zrinjski | 1 | 100% | 0% | 100% |
More: Radnik Bijeljina season stats · Zrinjski season stats · Premijer Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.