Primera Nacional · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 21:00. Final score 0–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 64% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 0, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 64% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12% | 88% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 41% | 59% | No |
The result model puts Racing Cordoba at 46%, the draw at 27% and San Martin S.J. at 26%, from expected goals of 1.37 and 0.96.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 3.10 | 30% | 36% | +6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 70% | 64% | -6% |
| Both teams to score | 2.50 | 38% | 41% | +3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Racing Cordoba 2.38, draw 2.88, San Martin S.J. 3.40.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 29% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Racing Cordoba have 10 in 24 this season (6 of 12 at home), San Martin S.J. 8 in 22 (5 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 37% and 34%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 34%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 34%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 1.37 for Racing Cordoba and 0.96 for San Martin S.J.. Folding in 30% of that view gives 36%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Cordoba | 24 | 42% | 8% | 42% |
| San Martin S.J. | 22 | 36% | 0% | 64% |
More: Racing Cordoba season stats · San Martin S.J. season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.