NWSL (W) · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 01:45. Final score 2–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 52% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Portland Thorns W at 66%, the draw at 21% and Orlando Pride W at 13%, from expected goals of 1.93 and 0.73.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.65 | 57% | 48% | -9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | 43% | 52% | +9% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | 56% | 49% | -7% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Portland Thorns W 2.00, draw 3.60, Orlando Pride W 3.00.
The league sets the starting point. NWSL (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Portland Thorns W have 11 in 19 this season (3 of 8 at home), Orlando Pride W 11 in 19 (5 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.93 for Portland Thorns W and 0.73 for Orlando Pride W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Thorns W | 19 | 58% | 47% | 53% |
| Orlando Pride W | 19 | 58% | 32% | 47% |
More: Portland Thorns W season stats · Orlando Pride W season stats · NWSL (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.