MLS · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 00:30. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 66% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 34% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 36% | Yes |
The result model puts Orlando City SC at 46%, the draw at 21% and FC Cincinnati at 33%, from expected goals of 2.11 and 1.76.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.28 | 74% | 66% | -8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.60 | 26% | 34% | +8% |
| Both teams to score | 1.28 | 73% | 64% | -10% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Orlando City SC 2.25, draw 4.00, FC Cincinnati 2.75.
The league sets the starting point. MLS has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Orlando City SC have 13 in 18 this season (5 of 8 at home), FC Cincinnati 13 in 18 (7 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 74%, from expected goals of 2.11 for Orlando City SC and 1.76 for FC Cincinnati. Folding in 30% of that view gives 66%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City SC | 18 | 72% | 61% | 61% |
| FC Cincinnati | 18 | 72% | 67% | 78% |
More: Orlando City SC season stats · FC Cincinnati season stats · MLS table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.