Primera Clausura · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 22:30. Final score 2–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 61% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 61% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 78% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Olimpia at 49%, the draw at 27% and Sportivo Ameliano at 24%, from expected goals of 1.41 and 0.88.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 44% | 39% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 56% | 61% | +4% |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | 49% | 51% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Olimpia 1.91, draw 3.10, Sportivo Ameliano 3.50.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Clausura has produced over 2.5 goals in 42% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Olimpia have 10 in 25 this season (6 of 12 at home), Sportivo Ameliano 8 in 26 (3 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 43% and 35%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 40%.
Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 39%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 40%, from expected goals of 1.41 for Olimpia and 0.88 for Sportivo Ameliano. Folding in 30% of that view gives 39%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olimpia | 25 | 40% | 20% | 44% |
| Sportivo Ameliano | 26 | 31% | 12% | 62% |
More: Olimpia season stats · Sportivo Ameliano season stats · Primera Clausura table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.