Primera · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 17:30. Final score 2–1 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 51% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | Yes |
The result model puts Nublense at 56%, the draw at 25% and Union La Calera at 20%, from expected goals of 1.64 and 0.86.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 47% | 49% | +2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.80 | 53% | 51% | -2% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | 50% | 50% | +0% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Nublense 1.75, draw 3.40, Union La Calera 4.75.
The league sets the starting point. Primera has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Nublense have 6 in 17 this season (4 of 9 at home), Union La Calera 12 in 18 (5 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 40%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 46%, from expected goals of 1.64 for Nublense and 0.86 for Union La Calera. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nublense | 17 | 35% | 29% | 53% |
| Union La Calera | 18 | 67% | 33% | 50% |
More: Nublense season stats · Union La Calera season stats · Primera table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.