USL Championship · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 02:30. Final score 1–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 51% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts New Mexico United at 46%, the draw at 25% and FC Tulsa at 28%, from expected goals of 1.53 and 1.14.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 49% | -2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 51% | +2% |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | 54% | 53% | 0% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: New Mexico United 2.10, draw 3.30, FC Tulsa 2.90.
The league sets the starting point. USL Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. New Mexico United have 8 in 16 this season (4 of 8 at home), FC Tulsa 5 in 18 (3 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 42%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.53 for New Mexico United and 1.14 for FC Tulsa. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico United | 16 | 50% | 31% | 50% |
| FC Tulsa | 18 | 28% | 17% | 39% |
More: New Mexico United season stats · FC Tulsa season stats · USL Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.