MLS · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 01:30. Final score 4–1 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 65% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | 57% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | Yes |
The result model puts Nashville SC at 46%, the draw at 23% and Inter Miami at 32%, from expected goals of 1.83 and 1.5.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.48 | 64% | 65% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.60 | 36% | 35% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 | 66% | 62% | -4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Nashville SC 2.55, draw 3.60, Inter Miami 2.62.
The league sets the starting point. MLS has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Nashville SC have 10 in 18 this season (7 of 9 at home), Inter Miami 13 in 18 (7 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 65%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 88%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 65%, from expected goals of 1.83 for Nashville SC and 1.5 for Inter Miami. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 18 | 56% | 39% | 44% |
| Inter Miami | 18 | 72% | 61% | 72% |
More: Nashville SC season stats · Inter Miami season stats · MLS table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.