J3 League · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 11:00. Final score 2–3 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 54% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Matsumoto Yamaga at 45%, the draw at 25% and Biwako Shiga at 29%, from expected goals of 1.52 and 1.18.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 45% | 47% | +2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 55% | 53% | -2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Matsumoto Yamaga 1.83, draw 3.25, Biwako Shiga 3.80.
The league sets the starting point. J3 League has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Matsumoto Yamaga have 0 in 1 this season, Biwako Shiga 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 45% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 42% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.52 for Matsumoto Yamaga and 1.18 for Biwako Shiga. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matsumoto Yamaga | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Biwako Shiga | 1 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
More: Matsumoto Yamaga season stats · Biwako Shiga season stats · J3 League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.