First League · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 19:15. Final score 1–2 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 56% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 44% | 56% | No |
The result model puts Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 49%, the draw at 25% and Dunav Ruse at 26%, from expected goals of 1.6 and 1.09.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 44% | 44% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 56% | 56% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | 44% | 44% | +0% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.70, draw 3.60, Dunav Ruse 5.00.
The league sets the starting point. First League has produced over 2.5 goals in 45% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Lokomotiv Plovdiv have 1 in 4 this season (1 of 1 at home), Dunav Ruse 2 in 4 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 34% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 42%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.6 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 1.09 for Dunav Ruse. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 4 | 25% | 0% | 25% |
| Dunav Ruse | 4 | 50% | 0% | 50% |
More: Lokomotiv Plovdiv season stats · Dunav Ruse season stats · First League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.