Premier League · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 11:00. Final score 2–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 59% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 59% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 42% | 58% | No |
The result model puts LNZ Cherkasy at 41%, the draw at 27% and Chornomorets at 32%, from expected goals of 1.33 and 1.13.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 44% | 41% | -3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 56% | 59% | +3% |
| Both teams to score | 2.50 | 38% | 42% | +4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: LNZ Cherkasy 1.38, draw 4.00, Chornomorets 7.00.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. LNZ Cherkasy have 1 in 2 this season, Chornomorets 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 30% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 40%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 40%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 44%, from expected goals of 1.33 for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.13 for Chornomorets. Folding in 30% of that view gives 41%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LNZ Cherkasy | 2 | 50% | 0% | 0% |
| Chornomorets | 1 | 100% | 0% | 100% |
More: LNZ Cherkasy season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.