Premier League · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 15:00. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 52% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Kyzyl-Zhar at 48%, the draw at 25% and FC Astana at 27%, from expected goals of 1.61 and 1.15.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 | 53% | 52% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 47% | 48% | +1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Kyzyl-Zhar 3.50, draw 3.60, FC Astana 1.80.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Kyzyl-Zhar have 12 in 21 this season (8 of 11 at home), FC Astana 10 in 20 (3 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 1.61 for Kyzyl-Zhar and 1.15 for FC Astana. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyzyl-Zhar | 21 | 57% | 29% | 52% |
| FC Astana | 20 | 50% | 30% | 50% |
More: Kyzyl-Zhar season stats · FC Astana season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.