Urvalsdeild · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 19:00. Final score 3–3 (half-time 1–3). Before kick-off we rated it 74% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 6, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 26% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 71% | 29% | Yes |
The result model puts KR Reykjavik at 61%, the draw at 17% and Breidablik at 22%, from expected goals of 2.83 and 1.72.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.14 | 81% | 74% | -8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 5.00 | 19% | 26% | +8% |
| Both teams to score | 1.20 | 78% | 71% | -7% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: KR Reykjavik 1.55, draw 4.20, Breidablik 4.33.
The league sets the starting point. Urvalsdeild has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. KR Reykjavik have 16 in 18 this season (9 of 9 at home), Breidablik 12 in 18 (5 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 76% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 68%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 83%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 70%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 83%, from expected goals of 2.83 for KR Reykjavik and 1.72 for Breidablik. Folding in 30% of that view gives 74%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KR Reykjavik | 18 | 89% | 89% | 89% |
| Breidablik | 18 | 67% | 50% | 67% |
More: KR Reykjavik season stats · Breidablik season stats · Urvalsdeild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.