Premier League · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 14:00. Final score 2–2 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 51% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Kaspiy at 33%, the draw at 25% and Yelimay Semey at 42%, from expected goals of 1.36 and 1.56.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 59% | 51% | -8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.30 | 41% | 49% | +8% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Kaspiy 3.10, draw 3.80, Yelimay Semey 1.85.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Kaspiy have 9 in 21 this season (5 of 9 at home), Yelimay Semey 10 in 20 (5 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 1.36 for Kaspiy and 1.56 for Yelimay Semey. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaspiy | 21 | 43% | 24% | 52% |
| Yelimay Semey | 20 | 50% | 40% | 65% |
More: Kaspiy season stats · Yelimay Semey season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.