Meistriliiga · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 15:00. Final score 3–1 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 64% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 36% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts Kalju Nomme at 65%, the draw at 19% and Vaprus at 15%, from expected goals of 2.22 and 0.98.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 63% | 64% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.50 | 38% | 36% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | 56% | 59% | +3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Kalju Nomme 1.40, draw 4.50, Vaprus 5.75.
The league sets the starting point. Meistriliiga has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Kalju Nomme have 9 in 22 this season (6 of 11 at home), Vaprus 13 in 21 (7 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 83%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 2.22 for Kalju Nomme and 0.98 for Vaprus. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalju Nomme | 22 | 41% | 23% | 50% |
| Vaprus | 21 | 62% | 38% | 67% |
More: Kalju Nomme season stats · Vaprus season stats · Meistriliiga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.