Premier League · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 13:00. Final score 0–2 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 55% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Irtysh at 50%, the draw at 27% and FK Tobol Kostanay at 23%, from expected goals of 1.41 and 0.87.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 | 53% | 45% | -8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 47% | 55% | +8% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Irtysh 2.45, draw 3.30, FK Tobol Kostanay 2.50.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Irtysh have 10 in 20 this season (4 of 9 at home), FK Tobol Kostanay 9 in 20 (4 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 40%, from expected goals of 1.41 for Irtysh and 0.87 for FK Tobol Kostanay. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irtysh | 20 | 50% | 30% | 60% |
| FK Tobol Kostanay | 20 | 45% | 20% | 55% |
More: Irtysh season stats · FK Tobol Kostanay season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.