K League 1 · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 11:30. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 57% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Incheon United at 35%, the draw at 30% and Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 35%, from expected goals of 1.08 and 1.07.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.25 | 42% | 43% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.62 | 58% | 57% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | 50% | 55% | +5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Incheon United 2.15, draw 3.10, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.25.
The league sets the starting point. K League 1 has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Incheon United have 11 in 21 this season (5 of 11 at home), Gimcheon Sangmu FC 7 in 22 (3 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 38%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 45%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 37%, from expected goals of 1.08 for Incheon United and 1.07 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 43%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incheon United | 21 | 52% | 24% | 52% |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 22 | 32% | 14% | 64% |
More: Incheon United season stats · Gimcheon Sangmu FC season stats · K League 1 table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.