Urvalsdeild · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 19:00. Final score 1–3 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 67% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | Yes |
The result model puts IBV Vestmannaeyjar at 47%, the draw at 21% and IA Akranes at 33%, from expected goals of 2.15 and 1.78.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 65% | 67% | +2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.62 | 35% | 33% | -2% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 | 65% | 62% | -2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2.50, draw 3.60, IA Akranes 2.30.
The league sets the starting point. Urvalsdeild has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. IBV Vestmannaeyjar have 12 in 18 this season (6 of 9 at home), IA Akranes 12 in 18 (7 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 75%, from expected goals of 2.15 for IBV Vestmannaeyjar and 1.78 for IA Akranes. Folding in 30% of that view gives 67%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 18 | 67% | 44% | 78% |
| IA Akranes | 18 | 67% | 50% | 67% |
More: IBV Vestmannaeyjar season stats · IA Akranes season stats · Urvalsdeild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.