MLS · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 01:30. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 52% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | no pick |
The result model puts Houston Dynamo at 42%, the draw at 26% and Los Angeles Galaxy at 31%, from expected goals of 1.4 and 1.16.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 | 58% | 52% | -6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.25 | 42% | 48% | +6% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | 56% | 63% | +7% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Houston Dynamo 1.67, draw 4.00, Los Angeles Galaxy 4.75.
The league sets the starting point. MLS has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Houston Dynamo have 7 in 18 this season (3 of 9 at home), Los Angeles Galaxy 12 in 19 (6 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 1.4 for Houston Dynamo and 1.16 for Los Angeles Galaxy. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo | 18 | 39% | 22% | 39% |
| Los Angeles Galaxy | 19 | 63% | 21% | 79% |
More: Houston Dynamo season stats · Los Angeles Galaxy season stats · MLS table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.