USL Championship · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 00:00. Final score 2–1 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 57% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Hartford Athletic at 40%, the draw at 30% and Miami FC at 30%, from expected goals of 1.13 and 0.95.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 55% | 43% | -12% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.08 | 45% | 57% | +12% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | 56% | 46% | -10% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Hartford Athletic 1.73, draw 3.50, Miami FC 3.90.
The league sets the starting point. USL Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Hartford Athletic have 6 in 18 this season (4 of 7 at home), Miami FC 10 in 20 (3 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 45% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 43%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 34%, from expected goals of 1.13 for Hartford Athletic and 0.95 for Miami FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 43%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hartford Athletic | 18 | 33% | 17% | 28% |
| Miami FC | 20 | 50% | 35% | 50% |
More: Hartford Athletic season stats · Miami FC season stats · USL Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.