3. Liga · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 12:30. Final score 3–3 (half-time 1–2). Before kick-off we rated it 64% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 6, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 36% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Hansa Rostock at 46%, the draw at 22% and Waldhof Mannheim at 32%, from expected goals of 1.87 and 1.52.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 65% | 64% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.70 | 35% | 36% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | 63% | 60% | -2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Hansa Rostock 1.53, draw 4.33, Waldhof Mannheim 4.75.
The league sets the starting point. 3. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Hansa Rostock have 1 in 1 this season, Waldhof Mannheim 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 65% and 65%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 63% and 68%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 66%, from expected goals of 1.87 for Hansa Rostock and 1.52 for Waldhof Mannheim. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hansa Rostock | 1 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Waldhof Mannheim | 1 | 100% | 0% | 100% |
More: Hansa Rostock season stats · Waldhof Mannheim season stats · 3. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.