2. Bundesliga · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 12:30. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 62% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | Yes |
The result model puts Hannover 96 at 42%, the draw at 24% and VfL Wolfsburg at 35%, from expected goals of 1.62 and 1.46.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 61% | 62% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.40 | 39% | 38% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 | 65% | 63% | -2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Hannover 96 2.38, draw 3.60, VfL Wolfsburg 2.70.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Hannover 96 have 1 in 1 this season, VfL Wolfsburg 0 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 67% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 1.62 for Hannover 96 and 1.46 for VfL Wolfsburg. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannover 96 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| VfL Wolfsburg | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
More: Hannover 96 season stats · VfL Wolfsburg season stats · 2. Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.