Damallsvenskan (W) · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 18:00. Final score 5–0 (half-time 4–0). Before kick-off we rated it 58% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Hammarby W at 59%, the draw at 23% and Piteå W at 18%, from expected goals of 1.8 and 0.88.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 65% | 58% | -6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.62 | 35% | 42% | +6% |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | 44% | 51% | +7% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Hammarby W 1.17, draw 7.00, Piteå W 11.00.
The league sets the starting point. Damallsvenskan (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 66% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Hammarby W have 8 in 13 this season (5 of 6 at home), Piteå W 7 in 13 (3 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 61%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 13 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 67% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 40%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.8 for Hammarby W and 0.88 for Piteå W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hammarby W | 13 | 62% | 31% | 38% |
| Piteå W | 13 | 54% | 15% | 62% |
More: Hammarby W season stats · Piteå W season stats · Damallsvenskan (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.