Primera Nacional · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 20:00. Final score 1–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 61% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 61% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% | 85% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 42% | 58% | No |
The result model puts Gimnasia Jujuy at 64%, the draw at 22% and Chaco For Ever at 14%, from expected goals of 1.8 and 0.7.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.50 | 38% | 39% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 63% | 61% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 2.20 | 42% | 42% | -1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Gimnasia Jujuy 2.00, draw 3.10, Chaco For Ever 4.20.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 29% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Gimnasia Jujuy have 13 in 24 this season (6 of 12 at home), Chaco For Ever 7 in 23 (3 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 42% and 29%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 34%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 36%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 46%, from expected goals of 1.8 for Gimnasia Jujuy and 0.7 for Chaco For Ever. Folding in 30% of that view gives 39%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia Jujuy | 24 | 54% | 17% | 58% |
| Chaco For Ever | 23 | 30% | 13% | 48% |
More: Gimnasia Jujuy season stats · Chaco For Ever season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.