Urvalsdeild · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 19:00. Final score 2–4 (half-time 1–2). Before kick-off we rated it 63% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 6, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | 55% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | Yes |
The result model puts FH Hafnarfjordur at 20%, the draw at 20% and Vikingur Reykjavik at 60%, from expected goals of 1.13 and 2.12.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 65% | 63% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.62 | 35% | 37% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | 61% | 63% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: FH Hafnarfjordur 3.75, draw 4.20, Vikingur Reykjavik 1.62.
The league sets the starting point. Urvalsdeild has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FH Hafnarfjordur have 9 in 18 this season (3 of 9 at home), Vikingur Reykjavik 14 in 18 (7 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 69%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 1.13 for FH Hafnarfjordur and 2.12 for Vikingur Reykjavik. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FH Hafnarfjordur | 18 | 50% | 33% | 61% |
| Vikingur Reykjavik | 18 | 78% | 72% | 61% |
More: FH Hafnarfjordur season stats · Vikingur Reykjavik season stats · Urvalsdeild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.