Primeira Liga · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 20:30. Final score 1–2 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 56% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 55% | No |
The result model puts Famalicao at 45%, the draw at 26% and Maritimo at 30%, from expected goals of 1.5 and 1.17.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 44% | 44% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 56% | 56% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 2.00 | 47% | 45% | -2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Famalicao 1.73, draw 3.50, Maritimo 5.00.
The league sets the starting point. Primeira Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Famalicao have 0 in 1 this season, Maritimo 0 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 39% and 39%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 42%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.5 for Famalicao and 1.17 for Maritimo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Famalicao season stats · Maritimo season stats · Primeira Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.