Primera · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 01:00. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 55% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 78% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Everton de Vina at 44%, the draw at 29% and A. Italiano at 27%, from expected goals of 1.25 and 0.9.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 50% | 45% | -5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 50% | 55% | +5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | 51% | 49% | -3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Everton de Vina 1.75, draw 3.60, A. Italiano 4.20.
The league sets the starting point. Primera has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Everton de Vina have 8 in 18 this season (4 of 9 at home), A. Italiano 11 in 18 (4 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 20%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 36%, from expected goals of 1.25 for Everton de Vina and 0.9 for A. Italiano. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton de Vina | 18 | 44% | 28% | 44% |
| A. Italiano | 18 | 61% | 22% | 44% |
More: Everton de Vina season stats · A. Italiano season stats · Primera table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.